Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
techmarkets
If Trump Media & Technology Group primarily pursues a strategy of acquiring media and tech assets (M&A-focused rather than organic product building), it will significantly disrupt and reshape the U.S. media landscape.
I think this is going to really shake up the media landscape. If they can execute well, they just need to think about this as an M&A vehicle, not as an engineering and product creation.View on YouTube
Explanation

Available evidence shows that Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) neither (a) became a major, M&A‑driven consolidator of media/tech assets nor (b) "really shake[d] up" or reshaped the U.S. media landscape by late 2025.

On the strategy side, TMTG’s own 2024 results and 2025 filings describe it as operating Truth Social and building out related products like the Truth+ streaming service and the Truth.Fi financial/fintech brand. Management now says it is exploring mergers and acquisitions and may evolve into a holding company, but the same filings emphasize that 2024 was spent improving its own platforms and infrastructure rather than integrating acquired media or tech firms. There is no record of TMTG acquiring major media companies; instead, its expansion has been via organic product launches and partnerships (e.g., with Crypto.com, and a separate SPAC-based CRO digital-asset treasury venture), not transformative roll‑up acquisitions of existing U.S. media assets.(globenewswire.com)

On the impact side, Truth Social remains a relatively small, niche "alt‑tech" social network. Estimates for early 2025 put it at roughly 6.3 million active users, far below major platforms, and SimilarWeb/CNN data cited in public sources show its daily active users in the hundreds of thousands versus tens or hundreds of millions on X, Threads, Reddit, etc.(seo.ai) Financially, TMTG generated only about $4 million in revenue in 2023 and around $3.6 million in 2024 while posting very large net losses (on the order of hundreds of millions of dollars), dramatically underperforming its own earlier projections of tens of millions of users and billions in revenue by the mid‑2020s.(forbes.com) This scale and performance are inconsistent with any broad, structural reshaping of the U.S. media ecosystem.

Because TMTG did not, in practice, pursue a large, M&A‑led consolidation of media/tech assets and also failed to produce a significant disruption of the U.S. media landscape, Chamath’s prediction—"this is going to really shake up the media landscape" if run as an M&A vehicle—has not come true.