Chamath @ 00:25:33Inconclusive
marketseconomy
Measured over full‑year 2025, dollar‑denominated stablecoins will process transaction volumes that significantly exceed Visa’s global payment volume, continuing or widening the gap observed in Q2 2024.
Stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions. That summed up to $8.5 trillion of transaction volume... it was more than double Visa's transaction volume... I would say that the big trend in 25 is stablecoin usage.
Explanation
It’s too early to evaluate this prediction as of November 30, 2025, because:
- The claim is specifically about "measured over full‑year 2025" dollar‑denominated stablecoin transaction volume vs Visa’s global payment volume. Full‑year 2025 data for both:
- On‑chain stablecoin settlement volumes, and
- Visa’s FY2025 global payment volume will not be fully reported until calendar Q1–Q2 2026.
- Public data currently available (on‑chain stablecoin analytics and Visa’s most recent quarterly/annual filings) only cover periods up to part of 2025, not the entire calendar year, and therefore cannot confirm whether the full‑year 2025 condition is satisfied.
- Even if mid‑2025 or year‑to‑date numbers suggest a certain trend (e.g., that stablecoin settlement volumes are on track to exceed or not exceed Visa’s payments volume), that would still be projection, not a completed measurement of the whole year.
Because the prediction is explicitly about full‑year 2025 totals, and those totals are not yet available in official or widely accepted datasets, the correctness of the prediction cannot yet be determined.