Chamath’s prediction covered two linked claims for H1 2025: (1) tech-related M&A would stay “pretty subdued” with no wave of “crazy” mega-deals, and (2) only a small number of big, well-known private tech companies would IPO.

1. Tech M&A was not subdued and did see a wave of large deals
Multiple data sets and industry reports show that, by mid‑2025, tech M&A was running hot, not subdued:

• Corum Group’s H1 2025 tech M&A index reports 3,113 tech M&A deals vs 2,296 in H1 2024 (+36% volume) and deal value up 40% YoY, with megadeals ($1B+) rising from 31 to 40 in H1 2025. This is explicitly described as a “surge” in tech M&A. (corumgroup.com)
• A technology M&A outlook summarizing PwC data notes that in H1 2025 technology accounted for 78% of TMT deal volume and 83% of TMT deal value, describing the sector as leading a broader M&A boom. (legacyadvisors.io)
• Mergermarket data (via CNBC) shows that while global deal count hit a 20‑year low, total M&A value in H1 2025 was about $2T, up 25% YoY, explicitly “buoyed by a flurry of mega deals across U.S. tech, Chinese banking and Japan’s auto sector.” (cnbc.com)
• Dealogic data reported by FastBull indicates 17,528 global M&A deals in H1 2025 vs 20,583 a year earlier, but overall value up 26%, driven by a 62% surge in deals over $10B by June 27, 2025. (fastbull.com)
• A CB Insights / EquityZen “State of Tech Exits H1’25” summary describes “record-breaking M&A in AI”, highlighting landmark deals such as OpenAI’s $6.5B acquisition of Io and Databricks’ $1B acquisition of Neon, and characterizing H1 2025 tech M&A as unusually strong rather than quiet. (crowdfundinsider.com)

Collectively, these sources show that H1 2025 featured a high volume and value of tech deals and a sharp jump in large/mega transactions, including in U.S. tech, which is the opposite of “pretty subdued” or “no crazy M&A deals that everybody is expecting.” On the M&A dimension, his prediction was clearly falsified.

2. Big‑name tech IPOs: window opening, but still a limited set of large unicorn listings
On IPOs, the picture is more mixed and actually closer to what he described:

• EY’s Global IPO data for H1 2025 show 539 IPOs worldwide raising $61.4B, with the U.S. leading at 109 IPOs, its busiest first half since 2021, but still far from 2021’s frenzy. (proactiveinvestors.com)
• A CB Insights / EquityZen "Tech Exits H1’25" report explicitly says the tech IPO market remained muted in H1’25, even as it notes that high-profile unicorn exits like CoreWeave’s Q1 2025 IPO were important outliers. (crowdfundinsider.com)
• Stripe and Databricks—the exact scale of companies Chamath alluded to—remained private as of late 2025. Stripe is still not publicly traded and continues to handle liquidity via large tender offers rather than an IPO, explicitly noted as delaying IPO plans. (fool.com) Databricks likewise has major product and partnership announcements in 2025 but no public listing. (en.wikipedia.org)
• That said, several large and well-known tech/fintech/crypto companies did complete IPOs in H1 2025, including:
  • CoreWeave, an Nvidia‑backed AI cloud provider, which went public on March 28, 2025, raising about $1.5B at roughly $19–23B valuation, widely described as the largest U.S. tech IPO since 2021. (en.wikipedia.org)
  • SailPoint, an identity‑security software company returning to public markets, which raised about $1.38B at a valuation above $12B in its February 2025 Nasdaq IPO. (investors.com)
  • eToro, the social trading platform, which listed on Nasdaq in mid‑May 2025, raising roughly $310–620M at a valuation around $5.5–5.6B, and was billed as a major fintech IPO. (coindesk.com)
  • Circle Internet Group, issuer of the USDC stablecoin, which listed on the NYSE on June 4, 2025; underwriters and company disclosures indicate around $1.1–1.2B in proceeds and a multibillion‑dollar valuation. (circle.com)
  • Chime, a prominent U.S. neobank, which priced its IPO on June 11, 2025 and began trading June 12, raising about $864M and valuing the company at roughly $11.6B. (reuters.com)

Relative to the huge backlog of late‑stage tech unicorns, this is a short list of major IPOs rather than a broad rush of Stripe/Databricks‑scale giants. Independent analyses consistently describe H1 2025 tech IPO activity as cautious or "muted" compared with past booms, even while acknowledging that a few high‑profile deals signaled that the window was beginning to reopen. (crowdfundinsider.com)
So his qualitative call that “not a lot” of the very biggest private tech names would go public in H1 2025 is directionally reasonable, even though more sizable IPOs happened than a strict pessimist might have expected.

Overall assessment
Because the M&A portion of Chamath’s forecast was decisively wrong—H1 2025 tech M&A featured a sharp resurgence and a surge in large and mega‑deals rather than being “pretty subdued”—the combined prediction did not come true, even though his skepticism about a broad wave of mega‑unicorn IPOs was closer to how H1 2025 actually played out.

Therefore, the best overall verdict on this prediction is: wrong.