ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:24:10Inconclusive
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By the end of 2026, due to FCC spectrum-license launch requirements that other operators cannot practically meet, SpaceX will effectively have a monopoly on the new generation of satellite broadband capacity and will offer the best global internet connectivity at every natural point on Earth, leaving incumbent terrestrial and satellite telecommunications providers in a financially and competitively difficult position over the following few years.
The big disruption is going to happen by the end of 2026 because this next generation set of licenses, uh, Spectrum licenses that the FCC sold came with a condition that you had to launch satellite capacity by the end of 2026... The point is that the only company that actually has the capability to build and to launch is SpaceX. So they have a complete monopoly.... you’re going to be left with a bunch of these existing telecommunications companies in a really difficult spot in the next couple of years.View on YouTube
Explanation

It’s too early to definitively judge this prediction because its main time horizon is “by the end of 2026,” and today is November 30, 2025.

What we can say so far:

  • SpaceX/Starlink is clearly the dominant LEO satellite‑broadband provider today, with thousands of satellites (7,000–9,000+ launched) and millions of subscribers worldwide, operating in over 100 countries. (globenewswire.com) This supports the direction of the prediction (Starlink becoming very powerful).

  • However, SpaceX does not have a regulatory or practical monopoly on new satellite‑broadband spectrum. Amazon’s Kuiper (now branded Amazon Leo) has an FCC license requiring it to launch about half of its ~3,236‑satellite constellation (≈1,618 satellites) by July 2026, and it has already launched over 100–150 satellites and begun enterprise preview, with broader service planned for 2025–2026. (cnbc.com) That means at least one other operator is meeting FCC‑style deployment milestones, contradicting the claim that "the only company that actually has the capability to build and to launch is SpaceX."

  • Other LEO and multi‑orbit competitors exist and are still investing heavily, notably Eutelsat/OneWeb, which already operates a global LEO constellation (~648 satellites) and is funding a next‑generation extension to be delivered from 2026 onward, plus participation in the EU’s IRIS² program. (reuters.com) This suggests a multi‑player market, not an obviously uncontested monopoly.

  • The prediction also asserts that incumbent terrestrial and satellite telecom providers will be left in a “really difficult spot” over the following years due to this supposed SpaceX monopoly. While many telcos face structural and financial pressures, the period he’s pointing to ("the next couple of years" after 2026) has not occurred yet, so we cannot empirically assess that part.

Because (1) the key date (end of 2026) has not yet arrived, and (2) the downstream effects he describes are meant to play out in the “next couple of years” after that, the overall outcome of the prediction cannot yet be scored as right or wrong. The early evidence shows Starlink dominance but also clear, growing competition and non‑monopolistic FCC licensing, which weakens the reasoning behind the prediction but does not yet conclusively falsify its main time‑bound claims.