Chamath @ 00:24:05Inconclusive
markets
Within the next iteration of SPAC structures (what he calls "Raptor 3"), SPACs will evolve into vehicles where the sponsor pre‑arranges a large, flexible pool of common equity capital (on the order of $1–3B) from the outset, so that de‑SPAC transactions function as fully pre‑baked IPOs with no redemption risk and all money rolling over as common stock.
I think that the future may be just prognosticating and guessing… I think the Raptor three will look like where somebody, a sponsor like me, rolls everything up into one thing so that it's already pre-wired from the beginning… so that it's a totally pre-baked IPO at a very fair price. I think that I think that that's what the Raptor three version of a Spac will look like.View on YouTube
Explanation
Based on current information, there isn’t enough evidence yet to say whether Chamath’s prediction has come true.
- In the Oct 3, 2025 episode, he explicitly frames this as a future “Raptor 3” SPAC structure: a sponsor would pre‑wire $1–3B of flexible common equity capital so that the de‑SPAC is a “totally pre‑baked IPO” with no redemption risk and all money rolling into common stock. (podscripts.co)
- Subsequent coverage in October 2025 (e.g., ABMedia / 8V summaries of his remarks) describes Raptor 2 as the current SPAC 2.0 structure and says Raptor 3 is still being prepared, with Chamath planning to raise $1–3B in a pre‑structured pool so companies can list at a fair price. These articles present Raptor 3 as an upcoming design, not something that has already been launched or adopted. (abmedia.io)
- The available write‑ups on “SPAC 2.0 (Raptor 2/3)” discuss Raptor 3 conceptually as the next evolution of SPACs that would integrate capital sources and pre‑configure the deal, again framing it as a proposal rather than a live market structure. (note.com)
- Broader news and filings as of November 30, 2025 do not show any completed SPACs (by Chamath or the wider market) that clearly match his described Raptor 3 pattern—i.e., a standardised, widely used structure where sponsors universally pre‑arrange multi‑billion‑dollar common equity pools eliminating redemption risk. The only references we find to “Raptor 3” are explanatory or forward‑looking, not reports of executed deals. (podscripts.co)
- Only about two months have passed between the prediction (Oct 3, 2025) and the current date (Nov 30, 2025). Launching a new SPAC vehicle, raising $1–3B, completing a de‑SPAC under a novel structure, and having it recognized as the “next iteration” of the market generally takes longer than this.
Given that Raptor 3 is still in the planning / proposal stage and there has not yet been time for the SPAC market to adopt or reject this structure, the correct status of the prediction today is “inconclusive (too early)”, not clearly right or wrong.