What was predicted?

Chamath predicted that:

1. The Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC) / Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) deal would actually complete its de‑SPAC.
2. At closing, the enterprise value would be extremely high relative to expectations, such that observers would be surprised.

Did the merger (de‑SPAC) actually close?

Yes.

• DWAC and TMTG completed their merger in late March 2024; TMTG became the public company and DWAC ceased to exist as a standalone SPAC.(ae.marketscreener.com)
• The combined company began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker DJT on March 26, 2024.(cnbc.com)

This directly confirms the “it will de‑SPAC” part of the prediction.

How high was the valuation at closing, relative to prior expectations?

Deal / baseline expectations in 2021:

• The original merger agreement valued Trump Media at an initial enterprise value of $875 million, with potential earn‑outs lifting that to up to $1.7 billion if the stock performed well post‑combination.(sec.gov)
  This was the formal, stated EV baseline.

Market pricing at and immediately after de‑SPAC:

• On March 26, 2024, DJT’s first trading day, the stock closed at $57.99, giving the company a market value of about $7.85 billion.(investor.wedbush.com)
• CNBC similarly reported that Trump’s majority stake was worth over $5 billion during midday trading on the debut, implying a total equity value in the mid‑single‑digit billions.(cnbc.com)
• Commentators noted that a business with only a few million dollars of annual revenue was being valued around $6–8 billion, describing it as a meme‑stock‑type valuation.(mediapost.com)

Relative to the deal EV of $875M–$1.7B, the actual market‑implied enterprise value at closing was several times higher (roughly 4–9×), which fits the prediction that closing EV would be “very high” versus the original expectations embedded in the merger terms.

Expectations by the time of closing (skepticism the deal would ever get there):

• In 2022–2023, multiple investigations and SEC scrutiny created substantial doubt that the merger would close at all; short‑seller Kerrisdale Capital explicitly argued DWAC would never secure regulatory approval to close the merger.(benzinga.com)
• DWAC’s share price had collapsed from triple‑digit highs in 2021 to the mid‑teens by late 2022 amid worries about liquidation and failed extensions.(cnbc.com)

Against that backdrop—where a non‑trivial camp expected no deal or a much more modest outcome—the fact that the merger did close and produced a ~$7–8B equity value for a tiny‑revenue company was indeed far above what many skeptics and more conservative observers were expecting.

Were observers “shocked” by the valuation?

"Shocked" is subjective, but there is clear evidence that:

• Financial and media commentary repeatedly highlighted how disproportionately large the valuation was compared with the company’s revenues (on the order of a few million dollars per year), often in a mocking or incredulous tone.(mediapost.com)
• Coverage framed DJT as a meme stock driven by politics and retail enthusiasm rather than fundamentals, underlining how unusual the valuation was.(investor.wedbush.com)

While “everyone will be shocked” can’t be measured precisely, the objective facts are that the deal closed and the market‑implied enterprise value at closing was many times the original deal EV and widely described as extraordinary given the fundamentals.

Conclusion

• The deal did de‑SPAC, despite significant regulatory and legal overhang.
• At and immediately after closing, Trump Media / DJT traded at an enterprise/equity value massively above both the agreed 2021 deal valuation and what many skeptics thought was plausible, provoking exactly the kind of disbelief Chamath alluded to.

Given those facts, the prediction is best classified as right.