Evidence since June 2020 matches Chamath Palihapitiya’s claim that many concrete police-reform measures (use-of-force rules, training, misconduct/decertification frameworks, and even some union‑contract changes) would actually be enacted in at least some U.S. jurisdictions, often with support across party lines.

• Within roughly a year of George Floyd’s murder, at least 30 states plus Washington, D.C., enacted one or more statewide policing reforms; 25 of those states and D.C. changed law on use of force, duties to intervene/report/render aid, or misconduct reporting and decertification, including bans or tight limits on chokeholds and new reporting/databasing requirements. (brennancenter.org)
• The National Conference of State Legislatures found that from May 25–Dec 31, 2020, 36 states and D.C. introduced over 700 police‑accountability bills, with nearly 100 enacted, showing broad legislative follow‑through rather than rhetoric alone. (ncsl.org)
• States such as Virginia passed sweeping packages in a 2020 special session: banning most chokeholds and no‑knock warrants, requiring officers to intervene in excessive force, limiting minor‑infraction stops, creating statewide codes of conduct and standardized training, expanding decertification of officers, authorizing AG pattern‑or‑practice investigations, and establishing the MARCUS mental‑health crisis response system. (en.wikipedia.org) These are precisely the kinds of training, use‑of‑force, and oversight reforms discussed in 2020 debates.
• Numerous cities and states adopted additional policy changes: Louisville’s Breonna’s Law unanimously banned no‑knock warrants; other jurisdictions revised chokehold rules, duty‑to‑intervene policies, and data‑collection practices; and Minneapolis entered a court‑enforceable consent decree to overhaul police training and use‑of‑force policies after a DOJ investigation. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Some reforms explicitly involved union or contract structures: Boston’s 2023–25 contract with the Boston Police Patrolmen’s Association, whose prior contract expired in June 2020, is described by the city as its first to include operational reforms, including a defined list of serious offenses that are no longer eligible for arbitration (limiting a key union protection), changes to paid‑detail and overtime systems, and reduced on‑duty union release. (boston.gov)
• Palihapitiya also argued that different ideologies would often converge on similar reforms for their own reasons. Post‑2020 legislation supports this at least at the state level: for example, Arizona’s HB 2650, requiring independent investigation of critical force incidents by an outside agency, passed with bipartisan support, and Republican‑led Arkansas created a statewide task force to review police training, certification, and standards in response to the protests. (en.wikipedia.org)
• By contrast, comprehensive federal reforms such as the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act repeatedly stalled in the U.S. Senate, indicating that national bipartisan consensus was limited. (en.wikipedia.org) But Chamath’s normalized prediction only required that many of the discussed reforms be implemented somewhere in the U.S., not that Congress would enact a sweeping federal package.

Taken together, the record shows that a substantial number of concrete police‑reform measures on use of force, training, oversight/decertification, data reporting, and even some union‑contract provisions were in fact enacted in multiple jurisdictions across the country after June 2020, often with at least some bipartisan support. That aligns with the substance of his prediction, so it is best judged as right overall.