ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:08:46Inconclusive
governmenteconomy
If OpenAI becomes a multi-hundred-billion-dollar company, the tax and structural issues around its nonprofit/for-profit setup will be resolved through court proceedings or government legal action, rather than remaining unaddressed.
And other companies had copied this. Long story short, the IRS sued, you know, similar to you, David, I was in years of depositions and interviews and all of this stuff. So the point is that the government really cares about these kinds of things because so much money is on the line. And if OpenAI turns out to be this Multi-hundred billion dollar behemoth, this will get figured out in court, Import because there's just too much money at stake.View on YouTube
Explanation

OpenAI has clearly met the “multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar behemoth” condition Chamath described: it was valued around $300B in a SoftBank‑led tender offer in March 2025 and reached about $500B in an October 2025 secondary sale, making it the world’s most valuable private company. (visualcapitalist.com)

On the “tax and structural issues” side, there has been substantial government and legal involvement focused specifically on OpenAI’s nonprofit / for‑profit structure:

  • The California Attorney General opened an investigation into OpenAI’s plan to convert control from its nonprofit to a for‑profit entity, sending a detailed letter about charitable‑asset protections and restructuring plans; the investigation was explicitly described as ongoing. (kpbs.org)
  • After consultations with the California and Delaware attorneys general, OpenAI revised course: instead of a clean for‑profit conversion, it adopted a structure where its operating arm is a public benefit corporation (PBC) with the nonprofit parent retaining governance control and a large equity stake. This new structure, implemented in October 2025, required and received AG approval. (apnews.com)
  • A watchdog group (the Midas Project) filed a formal IRS complaint alleging tax‑law violations and conflicts of interest tied to OpenAI’s nonprofit status and restructuring, but there is no public indication yet that the IRS has opened an enforcement action or brought a case. (aicoin.com)
  • Elon Musk’s lawsuits against OpenAI center on claims that it abandoned its nonprofit mission and improperly shifted toward a for‑profit structure; preliminary motions have been decided (e.g., denial of an injunction), but no trial or final judgment on the structural / charitable questions has occurred. (politico.com)

So far, Chamath’s directional view—that once OpenAI became enormous, its structure would attract serious legal and regulatory scrutiny—has been borne out. But his stronger claim that these issues “will get figured out in court” / via government legal action has not yet reached a clear, final resolution: key questions about tax treatment, charitable‑asset valuation, and nonprofit duties remain under investigation or in ongoing litigation, with no decisive court ruling or IRS enforcement outcome on those points as of November 30, 2025. Because the ultimate legal outcome is still open, the prediction is best classified as inconclusive (too early to tell) rather than clearly right or wrong.