Using closing prices on Nov 5, 2021 (the last trading day before the podcast’s Nov 6, 2021 release) and recent prices in late November 2025, and comparing returns on an equal‑weighted basis:

1. Starting prices (Nov 5, 2021, closes)

   • MSFT: $324.57
   • GOOGL (Alphabet A): $147.83
   • AAPL: $148.17
   • AMZN: $175.95
   • META (then Facebook): $339.04
   • NFLX: $64.57
     These values come from StatMuse’s daily price tables for November 2021 for each ticker. (statmuse.com)

2. Recent prices (late Nov 2025)
   The same StatMuse pages report latest prices around late November 2025 of approximately:

   • MSFT: $492.08
   • GOOGL: $320.10
   • AAPL: $278.86
   • AMZN: $211.70
   • META: $633.72
   • NFLX: $107.57 (statmuse.com)

3. Approximate total price returns (split‑adjusted, dividends ignored)

   • MSFT: +51.6%

   • GOOGL: +116.5%
     → Average for the long side (MSFT & GOOGL): ~+84%.

   • AAPL: +88.2%

   • AMZN: +20.3%

   • META: +86.9%

   • NFLX: +66.6%
     → Average for the equal‑weighted short basket (AAPL, AMZN, META, NFLX): ~+65–66%.

   These percentages are computed directly from the StatMuse start and latest prices above.

4. Did the spread trade work?
   Interpreting Chamath’s idea in the normalized way you gave — that “MSFT and GOOG will outperform the equal‑weighted basket of AAPL, META, AMZN, NFLX” on a return basis — the data show:

   • Long side average return ≈ +84%
   • Short basket average return ≈ +65–66%
   • Relative outperformance ≈ 18–19 percentage points in favor of MSFT + GOOGL over ~4 years.

   In a standard, dollar‑neutral spread (equal notional long MSFT+GOOGL vs equal‑weighted short of the four others), that return differential translates into a positive cumulative P&L for the trade over this period.

Because MSFT+GOOGL have indeed outperformed the specified equal‑weighted basket since the prediction, the podcast forecast — that this spread would make money on a relative basis "over the coming years" — has come true so far, hence the classification of “right.”