Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
Chamath @ 00:51:38Inconclusive
healthscience
For people of their generation (middle-aged adults in 2021), typical lifespans will extend such that it is very likely they will live into their 100s (age 100+).
here's the thing we are living longer and longer than ever. It is very likely that we're all going to live to our hundreds.View on YouTube
Explanation

This prediction concerns typical lifespans of a generation of middle‑aged adults in 2021 (people who might have been, say, 35–55 years old then). For such a cohort, we cannot know in 2025 whether it is “very likely [they] will live to [their] hundreds” because:

  1. They have not yet reached the age in question. Someone who was 45 in 2021 will be about 49 in 2025, decades away from age 100. No amount of current data can yet show what fraction of that cohort will actually reach 100.
  2. Available longevity data is about past and current mortality, not the realized lifespan of this future cohort. Even though life expectancy in developed countries has generally risen over the last century, it has recently stagnated or even declined slightly in places like the U.S., especially around the COVID‑19 period and opioid crisis, which complicates projections—but does not yet definitively falsify or confirm a claim about how many current middle‑aged adults will reach 100.
  3. Longevity forecasts are inherently long‑term. To judge whether it is “very likely that we’re all going to live to our hundreds” for that generation, we would need to observe outcomes many decades from now (around 2050–2080). As of November 30, 2025, that evidence does not and cannot exist.

Because the prediction is about outcomes that mostly lie many decades in the future, and insufficient time has passed to observe whether a large share of that generation actually reaches 100+, the correctness of the prediction cannot yet be determined.