Chamath @ 00:49:28Right
economy
Given high fiscal/monetary stimulus, a less-motivated labor force, rising taxes, and rising input and wage costs (as of May 2021), the combined effect will be a notable increase in price inflation in the U.S. in the following period.
So we have these two opposing forces, right? We have so much stimulus. We have, um, an under-motivated labor force. We have more taxation. That's also just going to be wasted. So very poor ROI. And then now we have input costs going up, um, and prices going up to try to attract people. It's it's all going to drive price inflation.View on YouTube
Explanation
Available data show that after May 2021 the U.S. indeed experienced a sharp and historically large rise in inflation, matching Chamath’s forecast that the then‑current mix of heavy stimulus, labor issues, higher taxes/spending, and rising costs would "drive price inflation."
Key facts:
- U.S. CPI inflation was low before COVID (about 1.2% in 2020) and then jumped to about 4.7% for 2021 as a whole, and 8.0% for 2022, far above the Fed’s 2% target. (officialdata.org)
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that over the 12 months ending June 2022, CPI rose 9.1%, the largest 12‑month increase since 1981. (bls.gov)
- News coverage at the time similarly described June 2022’s 9.1% CPI as a new four‑decade peak in inflation. (cnbc.com)
Chamath did not specify an exact magnitude or deadline, only that the combination of factors present in May 2021 would lead to a notable increase in U.S. price inflation in the subsequent period. Measured inflation did, in fact, surge to multi‑decade highs over the next 12–18 months, so the prediction is best judged as right.