The prediction concerns China’s population size in the year 2300. As of today (2025), that date is still 275 years in the future, so the specific claim that China’s population will be “roughly half” of its current size by 2300 cannot yet be verified or falsified.

We can say that the direction of Chamath’s underlying premise (population decline) aligns with current data:

• China’s total population peaked around 2021 and has since begun to fall; official figures show population declines in both 2022 and 2023, driven by low birth rates and an aging population.
• China’s total fertility rate (TFR) is now well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman (recent estimates place it around ~1.0 or even lower in some analyses), suggesting continued demographic pressure and likely long‑term shrinkage if trends persist.

However, long-range demographic projections out to 2300 are highly uncertain and depend on policy changes, migration, economic development, technological progress, and cultural shifts over centuries. Current UN and academic projections often extend only to 2100 and already diverge significantly from one another; extrapolating another 200 years beyond that is speculative.

Because the prediction’s target year has not arrived and no model can definitively confirm a specific 2300 population level today, the correct classification is:

• Result: inconclusive (too early to tell).