Trump’s September 25, 2025 executive order backing a qualified divestiture of TikTok’s U.S. operations adopts a framework in which the new U.S. TikTok entity is valued at roughly $14 billion, a figure reported across multiple outlets covering the deal. (investing.com) By contrast, analysts before and around the time of Chamath’s January 2025 comments commonly put TikTok’s U.S. business in a range from tens of billions up to well above $100 billion depending on assumptions about the recommendation algorithm, with some estimates explicitly pegging U.S. value or U.S.-focused scenarios around or above the $100 billion mark that Thomas Laffont discussed. (cnbc.com) The 2024 Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act legally forced a divestiture or U.S. shutdown, and Trump repeatedly used executive orders to delay enforcement while conditioning TikTok’s survival on an approved sale, a process run through an interagency and White House–led framework rather than a normal market auction. (whitehouse.gov) Coverage of the announced $14 billion price explicitly characterizes it as an extremely low multiple of TikTok U.S. revenue and attributes the discount to the coerced, politically driven nature of the sale, with one analysis calling the valuation daylight robbery relative to the business fundamentals. (business-standard.com) In other words, the currently agreed disposition that keeps TikTok operating in the U.S. under Trump is proceeding at a transaction value far below Laffont’s roughly $100 billion standalone estimate and is clearly shaped by U.S. government leverage rather than by TikTok’s modeled economic value, matching the core of Chamath’s prediction even though some implementation details of the deal may still change before closing.