OPEC+ decided on June 2, 2022 to accelerate its planned output hikes, agreeing to add 648,000 barrels per day in both July and August 2022 instead of smaller monthly increases; this decision explicitly covered the August period Chamath was talking about and was reaffirmed at the June 30 meeting.(thenationalnews.com) As part of these higher group targets, Saudi Arabia’s official OPEC production quota for August 2022 was set at 11 million barrels per day.(statista.com)

According to OPEC’s own Monthly Oil Market Report (September 2022), Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in August 2022 averaged 10,904 thousand barrels per day (10.904 mb/d), up from 10.744 mb/d in July and 10.559 mb/d in June.(scribd.com) An independent analysis using IEA/EIA data likewise cites Saudi output at about 10.9 mb/d in August 2022, contrasting it with a much lower level in mid‑2023.(tradingview.com) Broader 2022 statistics from the U.S. EIA and other analyses show Saudi crude production averaging about 10.4–10.6 mb/d for the year, consistent with Saudi output being near 10 mb/d before these mid‑2022 hikes and close to 11 mb/d afterward.(eia.gov)

Chamath’s claim was that by August OPEC+ would implement a capacity (i.e., production/quota) increase that would take Saudi Arabia from roughly 10 mb/d to about 11 mb/d. In practice, OPEC+ did approve the accelerated increases, Saudi’s official August quota was indeed 11 mb/d, and actual production that month was effectively 11 mb/d when rounded (10.9 mb/d). Given normal rounding and the informal context of the statement, the prediction matches what happened in both policy (quota) and realized output terms, so it is best judged as right.