ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
← Back to hostEpisode
Chamath @ 00:44:10Right
politicsgovernment
Following the 2021 Wall Street Journal revelations about Instagram's internal research on teen mental health, there will be multiple legal and regulatory actions against Facebook/Instagram: (1) U.S. state attorneys general will file lawsuits and support class actions alleging harms such as eating disorders, anxiety, or related mental health issues in minors caused or exacerbated by these apps; and (2) governments in other countries (e.g., in Europe or Asia) will initiate their own investigations or actions based on these issues, within a few years after 2021.
are we really willing to bet that now there are not 50 individually ambitious, politically ambitious state AGS licking their chops, reading this stuff, wondering how many kids in their state may have suffered from an eating disorder or anxiety and blame it on one of these apps, of course. Are we are we convinced that not a single lawsuit will get filed? Are we convinced that there's not going to be any class action? And by the way, that's just the United States. What is somebody that's sitting around a, you know, around a table of politicians desks in, you know, Germany, Belgium, uh, France, Thailand, uh, they're going to find their issue in this treasure trove of content that's being, you know, continuously drip fed out to the public.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence since 2021 shows that both parts of Chamath’s prediction have materialized.

  1. U.S. state AG lawsuits and related class / mass actions over teen mental health harms

  • On October 24, 2023, a bipartisan coalition of 41–42 state attorneys general and D.C. filed coordinated lawsuits against Meta (Facebook and Instagram) in federal and state courts. The complaints allege that Meta knowingly designed and deployed addictive features that harm children’s and teens’ mental health, fueling a “youth mental health crisis” and violating state consumer protection laws and COPPA. (ag.state.mn.us)

  • These state AG filings explicitly build on the 2021 Wall Street Journal reporting and Frances Haugen’s disclosures about internal Meta research showing Instagram worsened body image and mental health for teen girls. (apnews.com)

  • Separately, hundreds (now over 2,000) private lawsuits by minors, families and school districts have been consolidated in In re Social Media Adolescent Addiction/Personal Injury Products Liability Litigation (MDL No. 3047) in the Northern District of California. Plaintiffs allege that platforms including Facebook and Instagram are deliberately designed to be addictive for children and teens and have caused depression, anxiety, self‑harm, and eating disorders. (trulaw.com)

  • Individual suits against Instagram specifically claim it fueled teen girls’ addiction to the app and led to depression, anxiety and anorexia, including hospitalizations and suicide attempts, squarely matching the “eating disorders” and anxiety harms Chamath mentioned. (foxbusiness.com)

    Together, this satisfies his forecast that multiple state AGs would sue and that there would be extensive class/mass‑action style litigation over youth mental health harms allegedly caused or exacerbated by Instagram/Facebook.

  1. Non‑U.S. government investigations / actions over these issues within a few years

  • Under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), the European Commission opened a formal investigation into Meta (Facebook and Instagram) focused on “addictive and rabbit‑hole effects” on minors, the adequacy of age‑verification, and privacy around recommender systems, explicitly citing risks to the physical and mental health of young Europeans. (voz.us)

  • In 2025 the Commission went further, issuing preliminary findings that Meta is in breach of DSA obligations, including failures around mechanisms for reporting illegal and harmful content and inadequate transparency and data access related to minors’ exposure to harmful material—again tied to risks to users’ mental and physical health. (theguardian.com)

    These EU actions are regulatory proceedings by a non‑U.S. government entity, initiated within a few years of the WSJ revelations, and are explicitly grounded in concerns about youth harm and mental health on Facebook/Instagram.

Because (a) many U.S. state AGs have indeed brought major lawsuits over teen mental‑health harms linked to Instagram/Facebook, alongside extensive private and school‑district litigation, and (b) European authorities have launched formal investigations and enforcement actions focused on the platforms’ negative mental‑health effects on minors, Chamath’s prediction has been borne out.