Evidence from 2022–2023 shows that inflation did become a central economic and political issue in the U.S., particularly around the 2022 midterms and into early 2023.

Economically, U.S. inflation surged to a 40‑year high, peaking at 9.1% year‑over‑year in June 2022 and remaining elevated into 2023, prompting aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes and widespread discussion of a potential recession. This surge significantly eroded purchasing power and was explicitly cited as a problem for Democrats going into the 2022 midterm elections.【(en.wikipedia.org)

Politically and electorally, multiple sources identify inflation/cost of living as the top concern for voters in the 2022 midterms. A summary of the 2022 U.S. elections notes that “the economy, inflation in particular, remained the top issue for voters throughout 2022,” citing an October 2022 Monmouth poll in which 82% of Americans said inflation was an “extremely or very essential issue” and large majorities disapproved of Biden’s handling of it.【(en.wikipedia.org) Exit‑poll reporting for the midterms similarly found that roughly one‑third of voters named inflation as the most important issue to their vote—more than any other single issue, including abortion, crime, gun policy, or immigration.【(reddit.com)

Although abortion and threats to democracy were also highly salient, the data consistently show inflation/cost of living as the leading voter concern and a dominant frame for political conflict in late 2022 and early 2023. That matches Chamath’s forecast that, roughly 18 months after October 2021 and around the midterms, “it’s going to be all about” inflation. Therefore, the prediction is best judged as right.