Chamath’s prediction had two key elements: (1) scope – “most cities” would adopt some kind of vaccination/biological‑status passport, at least for sporting events and concerts; and (2) durability/structure – framed as a kind of ongoing “biological Patriot Act,” i.e., a stable post‑COVID infrastructure rather than a short emergency blip.

What actually happened (2021–2025):

• Many jurisdictions did introduce vaccine or COVID‑status passes in 2021–early 2022. Examples include:

  • New York City’s Key to NYC program, requiring proof of vaccination for indoor dining, gyms, and entertainment venues, including concerts and clubs, from August 2021 until it was suspended March 7, 2022. (ny1.com)
  • San Francisco’s requirement for proof of vaccination at indoor restaurants, bars, gyms, and large indoor events beginning August 2021, which was dropped for most businesses March 11, 2022. (sf.gov)
  • Multiple other U.S. cities (Chicago, Boston, New Orleans, Washington, D.C., Seattle, Philadelphia, Newark, etc.) briefly required proof of vaccination for indoor dining, gyms, and entertainment venues. (lonelyplanet.com)
  • Numerous countries in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere rolled out vaccine‑passport or COVID‑certificate systems for domestic venues and events – e.g., Italy’s Green Pass, France’s passe sanitaire, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Azerbaijan, and others. (en.wikipedia.org)

• At the same time, large swaths of the U.S. and other regions never adopted such systems and in fact banned them:

  • U.S. states including Texas, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Montana, and several others enacted laws or executive orders prohibiting government‑issued vaccine passports and often restricting businesses from requiring proof of vaccination. (gov.texas.gov)
  • Major cities in those states (e.g., Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville) therefore never had city‑wide vaccine‑passport mandates for general event and venue access.
  • Many populous cities in India, Africa, and parts of Latin America also did not implement comprehensive vaccine passports for everyday access to concerts, sports, or restaurants; global summaries of vaccine‑passport use list dozens of adopting countries, not a majority of the world’s major cities. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Crucially, most of the systems that did exist were temporary and have been rolled back:

  • NYC ended Key to NYC in March 2022; businesses have discretion but there is no city‑mandated proof‑of‑vaccination requirement for patrons. (ny1.com)
  • San Francisco ended its proof‑of‑vaccination requirement for most indoor businesses on March 11, 2022; only large “mega events” briefly retained stricter rules. (sf.gov)
  • EU member states stopped requiring the EU Digital COVID Certificate even for travel by August 2022, and domestic “Green Pass”‑style rules in places like Italy and France were also phased out around 2022. (en.wikipedia.org)

By late 2025, there is no enduring, near‑universal system of vaccine or biological‑status passports for concerts and sporting events in “most major cities.” Instead, a subset of cities and countries briefly adopted such measures, while many others explicitly rejected or banned them, and almost all such requirements have since been lifted.

Because:

• the prediction said “most cities will have to have them” (a majority, not just “some” or “many”),
• and implied a lasting post‑COVID security infrastructure (“biological Patriot Act”),
• yet in reality adoption was partial, heavily contested, and largely temporary,

the prediction, taken as stated, did not come true.

So the outcome is best classified as wrong: events moved in that direction briefly, but not to the extent or permanence Chamath forecast.