ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:42:06Wrong
economymarkets
The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate to approximately 5.5% in this tightening cycle, leading to short‑term bank products such as Credit Suisse 3‑month T‑bill offerings reaching around 7.5% annualized yield in the near term (i.e., during the same rate‑hike cycle, 2023).
I still kind of maintain that we're probably going to have a 5.5% fed funds rate, which means that, I don't know, maybe Credit Suisse will offer me 7.5% soon on three month T-bills, but we're going to have higher rates.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction bundles two linked claims:

  1. Fed funds rate ≈5.5%.
    The Federal Reserve did in fact raise the federal funds target range to 5.25%–5.50% at its July 26, 2023 meeting, the highest level in over 22 years. This was the peak of the 2022–2023 tightening cycle and was maintained into mid‑2024 before cuts began. (cnbc.com)
    On this part, Chamath’s call for a ~5.5% fed funds rate was essentially correct.

  2. Credit Suisse 3‑month T‑bill product at ~7.5% soon.
    Three‑month U.S. Treasury bill yields in 2023 peaked around the mid‑5% range, not anywhere near 7.5%. For example, data and commentary show 3‑month T‑bill yields around 5.3%–5.4% in 2023–2024, including specific observations such as 5.37% in May 2023 and 5.34% on October 5, 2023. (nasdaq.com)
    A bank structuring a simple 3‑month T‑bill product cannot sustainably advertise a 7.5% annualized yield when the underlying risk‑free 3‑month bills only yield ~5.3–5.4%; there is no evidence of such an offer from Credit Suisse.

Moreover, Credit Suisse failed and was taken over by UBS in an emergency rescue in March 2023, with the legal takeover completed June 12, 2023. After that point it no longer operated as an independent bank that could roll out new CS‑branded retail products. (cnbc.com) This makes the notion that “soon” in the same cycle Credit Suisse would be offering 7.5% on 3‑month T‑bills even less plausible.

Because the prediction, as normalized, explicitly ties a correct macro call (Fed to ~5.5%) to a much higher, specific yield level (Credit Suisse 3‑month T‑bill product at ~7.5% in the same hiking cycle) that clearly did not occur, the combined prediction must be judged wrong overall, even though one component was accurate.