No federal billionaire wealth tax or general federal wealth tax on net worth has been enacted in the U.S. since the 2021 proposals discussed in the episode (e.g., Sen. Ron Wyden’s “billionaire income tax” and Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act of 2021), which remained proposed bills and never became law. (forbes.com)

Because no such wealth tax has been passed, it has not been litigated up to the Supreme Court, so the Court has never actually had the chance to either strike it down or uphold it. The most relevant recent case, Moore v. United States (2024), involved a tax on certain unrealized foreign earnings; the Court upheld that tax and explicitly noted in a footnote that it was not deciding the constitutionality of “taxes on holdings, wealth, or net worth,” i.e., a true wealth tax. (en.wikipedia.org)

Since the condition of Chamath’s prediction (“if this wealth tax were passed and then challenged”) has never occurred, and the Court has deliberately avoided ruling on the core wealth-tax question, we cannot determine whether his forecast about the conservative Court striking such a tax would have been correct. Hence the outcome is best classified as ambiguous rather than right, wrong, or merely “too early.”