Evidence from both central banks shows that by Q4 2022 they had clearly begun hiking rates and were in a much tighter stance than in October 2021.

• Starting point (Oct 2021):

  • The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range at 0–0.25% and was still buying $120B/month of Treasuries and MBS (though it had just announced a gradual taper starting November 2021). This is an explicitly “accommodative” stance. (bankrate.com)
  • The ECB kept its main refinancing rate at 0.0% and the deposit facility at –0.50%, and continued large-scale asset purchases under PEPP and APP, which it described as a “highly expansionary” / very accommodative policy. (focus-economics.com)

• Status by roughly Q4 2022:

  • The Federal Reserve began raising rates on March 16, 2022, lifting the target range to 0.25–0.50%, and then hiked at every subsequent meeting. By September 21, 2022 the range was 3.00–3.25%, and by December 14, 2022 it reached 4.25–4.50%. This is a dramatic tightening versus near‑zero rates in October 2021. (aol.com)
  • The ECB delivered its first rate hike in over a decade on July 21, 2022, raising key rates by 50 bps (deposit rate from –0.50% to 0.0%, main refi to 0.50%). It followed with further hikes in September, October, and December 2022, bringing the deposit rate to 2.00% and the main refi rate to 2.50% by year-end—a large move from deep negative territory. (ecb.europa.eu) The ECB itself characterized these moves as “substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation.” (ecb.europa.eu)

Given that by late 2022 both the Fed and the ECB were actively hiking and had shifted from ultra‑easy policy (near‑zero/negative rates plus heavy QE) to clearly tighter stances, Chamath’s prediction that “this time next year” they would be raising and in a “really, really tighter posture” is borne out by the data.