Evidence from 2021–2024 shows that the combination Chamath described did occur within the 1–3 year window after October 2021, especially through 2022–2023:

• Unemployment fell (labor market tightened). In October 2021, the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.6%.【(bls.gov)】 By 2022 it had dropped sharply; the annual unemployment rate was about 3.65% in 2022 and 3.64% in 2023, down from 5.35% in 2021.【(macrotrends.net)】 In July 2022 the monthly rate hit 3.5%, matching the pre‑COVID low, with nonfarm payrolls fully recovering to pre‑pandemic levels—classic signs of a very tight labor market.【(bls.gov)】

• Wages and salaries increased. Average weekly earnings rose steadily: for example, one series shows average weekly wages climbing from about $1,086 in December 2021 to over $1,190 by early 2024, a clear nominal increase over the period.【(unemploymentdata.com)】 Other measures confirm elevated wage growth: the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker shows wage growth around 5.2% in late 2023,【(atlantafed.org)】 and a 2023 labor report noted average wages were roughly 4.4% higher year‑over‑year, reflecting continued pay increases in a tight job market.【(wxxinews.org)】

• Inflation moved higher before later moderating. When Chamath spoke (October 2021), 12‑month CPI inflation was about 6.2%.【(bls.gov)】 Over the following year it rose further, peaking at about 9.1% in June 2022—the post‑pandemic high—before gradually easing in 2023–2024.【(theworlddata.com)】 Thus, within the first 1–2 years after his forecast, inflation did indeed "go back up" from already‑elevated 2021 levels.

Taken together, within roughly 2022–2023 the U.S. experienced simultaneously: very low unemployment (tight labor markets), rising wages, and higher‑than‑2021 inflation (peaking in 2022). Even though inflation later declined, the scenario he described clearly materialized within his stated 1–3 year horizon, so the prediction is best judged as right.