Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
politicshealth
The EU will require a digitally verifiable vaccination passport for individuals to travel freely between EU member states (timeframe implied: during the post‑COVID reopening period beginning 2021).
I think it was proposed in the EU that you would need to get a, you know, a digitally verified passport stamp that shows that you have been vaccinated in order to travel freely amongst other EU nations.View on YouTube
Explanation

The EU did introduce the EU Digital COVID Certificate (often called the Green Pass), a QR‑code‑based, digitally verifiable document used across all member states starting July 2021 to facilitate travel during reopening. It could certify that someone had been vaccinated, had a recent negative test, or had recovered from COVID‑19, and was explicitly designed to ease cross‑border movement within the EU. (en.wikipedia.org)

However, the legal framework stressed that neither vaccination nor possession of the certificate was to be a formal precondition for exercising free‑movement rights. EU Council and Parliament texts and Q&A documents repeatedly state that the EU Digital COVID Certificate is not a travel document and not a precondition for free movement, and that people must not be discriminated against for being unvaccinated; test or recovery certificates had to be accepted as alternatives. (consilium.europa.eu)

In practice, during 2021–2022 many member states did require an EU Digital COVID Certificate (or equivalent) for quarantine‑free or minimally restricted travel, so vaccinated travellers effectively used a digital vaccine passport to move freely. At the same time, unvaccinated travellers could often still move using test certificates, and the EU‑level rules never made vaccination alone a universal, formal requirement. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the prediction can be read either as:

  • broadly anticipating an EU‑wide digital system (which did happen and functioned very much like a vaccine passport in practice), or
  • specifically claiming that being vaccinated would be a required condition for free movement at the EU‑law level (which did not happen), its accuracy depends heavily on interpretation. For that reason, the outcome is best classified as ambiguous rather than clearly right or wrong.