Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
economy
The US headline CPI year‑over‑year inflation rate will at some point in the near term after July 2022 reach at least the mid‑9% range and possibly 10% or higher.
I actually also kind of put myself on a limb there. And I said, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point we print a mid to high nines, maybe even a ten handle at some point.View on YouTube
Explanation

Chamath predicted that after July 2022, U.S. headline CPI year‑over‑year inflation would at some point print in the mid‑ to high‑9% range, possibly with a '10 handle.' Official data show that headline CPI instead peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and never went higher; that June 2022 reading is consistently identified as the post‑pandemic peak. (jpmorgan.com) In the months after the podcast, year‑over‑year headline CPI fell from 9.1% in June 2022 to 8.5% in July and 8.3% in August, then continued to decline (to 6.5% by December 2022) and has remained far below 9% through 2025. (bls.gov) Because there was never a CPI print at or above a clear 'mid‑9%' (≈9.5%+) or 10% level after July 2022, the prediction did not come true.