As of November 30, 2025, there is not enough elapsed time or evidence to fairly judge this prediction.

• Time horizon: Chamath’s statement is explicitly about the current AI-agent adoption cycle and framed as happening "over the next several years" and "at the limit," which implies a multi‑year, possibly decade‑scale process rather than something expected to be fully realized by 2025. Given the prediction was made in March 2024, only ~1.5 years have passed.
• No broad 50% OPEX reduction yet: Public financials, industry surveys, and earnings commentary across sectors (S&P 500, large tech, etc.) do not show a widespread, roughly 50% reduction in operating expenses attributable to AI agents so far; instead, we see experimentation, early productivity gains, and AI-related increases in capex/opex at many firms. However, this absence of full realization is not surprising so early in the cycle.
• Prediction is about the eventual potential, not the 2025 state: The phrasing "will probably be cut in half at the limit" is more like a long‑run equilibrium statement about what AI agents could do to typical company cost structures once fully diffused and integrated, not a claim about OPEX levels by a fixed date like 2025.

Because the prediction is explicitly long‑term and we are still in the early phase of enterprise AI-agent deployment, the correct status as of 2025‑11‑30 is “inconclusive (too early)”, not demonstrably right or wrong yet.