Data after the October 30, 2021 episode show that U.S. inflation did in fact remain elevated for several years rather than quickly reverting to pre‑2021 norms.

After running about ~1.5–2% in the late 2010s, U.S. CPI inflation rose sharply in 2021 and then stayed high: annual CPI inflation was about 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022, and 4.1% in 2023, only easing to just under 3% in 2024 and roughly the mid‑2% range in 2025—still slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and above most pre‑pandemic years.(officialdata.org) Monthly CPI data confirm that 12‑month inflation stayed well above 4% through most of 2022 and above 3% for much of 2023–2024 before moderating.(officialdata.org)

Contemporaneously, Fed officials had described 2021 price pressures as “transitory” before later acknowledging this was a misjudgment, as elevated inflation persisted.(reuters.com) By late 2024, major economic commentary characterized the post‑2021 period as an era of persistent high inflation entering its fifth year, explicitly contrasting it with the earlier “temporary” narrative.(investopedia.com) This multi‑year persistence above both the Fed’s 2% goal and pre‑2020 norms aligns with Chamath’s concern that inflation was “here and ... persistent,” and contradicts the view that it would be merely transitory. Therefore, the prediction is best judged as right.