Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
economy
At the next FOMC meeting after the June 2022 CPI print (i.e., the July 2022 meeting), the US Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate by 100 basis points.
Canada surprised everybody and raised, uh, their benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points... and I think if you read the fed minutes more carefully, I think Jerome Powell is basically ready to do the same thing after this inflation printView on YouTube
Explanation

The July 26–27, 2022 FOMC meeting (the first meeting after the June 2022 CPI print) raised the target range for the federal funds rate from 1.50%–1.75% to 2.25%–2.50%. That is an increase of 75 basis points (0.75 percentage point), not 100 basis points.

The Federal Reserve’s official July 27, 2022 FOMC statement and implementation note both show the new target range as 2.25%–2.50%, implying a 0.75 percentage point hike from the prior 1.50%–1.75% range set at the June 15, 2022 meeting. (federalreserve.gov)

Since Chamath specifically predicted a 100 bps hike and the Fed delivered 75 bps, the prediction did not come true.