Chamath @ 00:39:23Right
health
In the fall of 2021 there will be additional notable SARS‑CoV‑2 variants beyond Delta, leading to a difficult winter 2021–2022 in terms of COVID impact.
we hear about the Delta variant. Now we're going to hear about other variants in the fall. It's going to be a tough winter. We cannot shut down.View on YouTube
Explanation
Evidence shows that Chamath’s prediction substantially came true.
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New notable variants beyond Delta emerged in fall 2021.
- The WHO designated B.1.1.529 (Omicron) as a variant of concern on 26 November 2021, after it was first reported from South Africa earlier that month, explicitly recognizing it as a new major SARS‑CoV‑2 variant beyond Delta. (who.int)
- The CDC likewise classified Omicron as a Variant of Concern and reported the first confirmed U.S. case on 1 December 2021. (archive.cdc.gov)
This fits the prediction that “we’re going to hear about other variants in the fall” beyond Delta.
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Winter 2021–2022 was indeed a difficult COVID winter.
- A U.S. epidemiologic analysis identifies the Omicron wave from 1 December 2021 to 28 February 2022 as the most severe wave of the pandemic in the United States, with about 30 million cases and 170,000 deaths, and a daily case peak above 1.25 million in mid‑January 2022. (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
- U.S. historical overviews similarly describe Omicron’s arrival in December 2021 and note that by January 2022 it was causing a massive increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, averaging over 1 million new cases daily. (en.wikipedia.org)
- State‑level data (e.g., Massachusetts) show that the winter 2021–22 Omicron wave exceeded previous peaks in daily case counts, underlining the severity of that winter. (en.wikipedia.org)
Given that (a) a major new variant beyond Delta (Omicron) did emerge in late fall 2021 and (b) this variant drove an exceptionally severe COVID surge in winter 2021–22, the core factual content of Chamath’s prediction is right.