Evidence since Trump’s January 20, 2025 inauguration shows a clear, administration‑linked jump in tech‑sector M&A relative to the late‑Biden period.

1. Regulatory shift under Trump vs. Biden

   • Biden’s 2021 Executive Order 14036 explicitly pushed a “whole‑of‑government” crackdown on corporate concentration, especially in tech, and he installed Lina Khan at the FTC to pursue an aggressive antitrust agenda, including actions against Amazon, Meta and other large platforms. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Khan left office in January 2025, replaced by Trump’s appointee Andrew Ferguson, who campaigned on ending a “war on mergers,” while House Republicans moved to strip the FTC of much of its antitrust role—both clear signals of a more permissive stance toward consolidation. (theguardian.com)
   • A Wall Street Journal analysis reports that in 2025, under Trump’s new team, U.S. regulators have challenged only three mergers, versus an average of six per year under Biden, and describes corporate dealmaking as having “surged” in response to the looser enforcement. (wsj.com)

2. Tech M&A levels under Biden (baseline)

   • After the record 2021 boom, global M&A slumped in 2022–2023 and only partially recovered in 2024. PwC and Bain both characterize 2024 as a rebound year but still below the 2021 peak. (bain.com)
   • In 2024 specifically, technology was already the leading sector, with tech M&A deal value around $500–640 billion globally (depending on dataset), up roughly 16–32% versus 2023, but volumes were weak and tech deal counts fell sharply. (alliuris.org)
     This provides a meaningful, but relatively constrained, “late‑Biden” baseline for tech deal activity.

3. Tech and software M&A under Trump in 2025

   • LSEG data for the first nine months of 2025 show the tech sector leading global M&A with US$595.5 billion in deals, up 55% from the same period in 2024. (investmentexecutive.com)
   • Kroll’s software‑sector update reports that in Q1 2025 there were 714 software deals, a 36% increase over Q1 2024, with deal value up 23% year‑on‑year, and highlights Google’s US$32 billion acquisition of Wiz as emblematic of large strategic tech transactions. (kroll.com)
   • RBC Capital Markets notes that software M&A activity in 2025 is up 78% year‑on‑year, with private‑equity‑backed software deals more than doubling, driven by depressed SaaS valuations and aggressive buyers. (businessinsider.com)

4. Broader dealmaking surge tied to new administration

   • EY‑Parthenon’s U.S. Deal Barometer finds that in 2025, U.S. corporate M&A volume is up about 10%, and overall deal value 36% versus 2024, with technology listed among the most active sectors driving large transactions. (ey.com)
   • The Wall Street Journal likewise reports a more than 40% year‑over‑year rise in total U.S. deal value to US$1.9 trillion in 2025, with twice as many $10B+ megadeals, and explicitly attributes this to Trump’s more lenient antitrust enforcement that is “more tolerant” of consolidation in media and tech. (wsj.com)

5. Assessment vs. Chamath’s prediction
   Chamath’s normalized claim was that under the new Trump administration, tech and large companies would become much more aggressive on M&A, producing a clear increase in tech M&A versus the prior Democratic administration.

   • Empirically, tech and software M&A deal values in 2025 are up on the order of 50–80% versus 2024, after adjusting for the same period, and tech remains the leading sector for global deals. (investmentexecutive.com)
   • Multiple independent sources (EY‑Parthenon, BCG, LSEG, WSJ) describe a broad, administration‑linked M&A boom, with technology singled out as one of the main drivers and a more permissive U.S. antitrust regime explicitly cited as an enabler. (ey.com)

   While 2021 under Biden was itself an exceptional record year for global TMT activity, the relevant comparison for “the coming period” after Trump takes office is the late‑Biden environment (2022–2024), which featured significantly lower tech M&A intensity and stricter enforcement. Against that baseline, the post‑inauguration data show exactly the kind of sharp, tech‑heavy rebound in dealmaking Chamath described.

   On balance, the observed 2025 surge in tech and software M&A and the clear softening of antitrust enforcement under Trump support judging his prediction as right in direction and in its claim of a clear increase in tech M&A activity.