Chamath’s statement was explicitly conditional: “if you go into the midterms with nothing done … this is going to be a bloodbath.” In reality, Democrats did not enter the 2022 midterms with “nothing done.” By November 2022 they had enacted several major laws, including:

• American Rescue Plan Act (COVID‑19 stimulus), signed March 11, 2021 (en.wikipedia.org)
• Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law), signed November 15, 2021 (afdc.energy.gov)
• Inflation Reduction Act (major climate, health, and tax package), signed August 16, 2022 (en.wikipedia.org)
• CHIPS and Science Act (semiconductor and research funding), signed August 9, 2022 (nsf.gov)

The 2022 midterm results were also not a “bloodbath” by historical standards. Republicans gained only 9 House seats to take a narrow 222–213 majority, while Democrats gained one Senate seat and retained control of the Senate; analysis widely noted that Democrats outperformed typical midterm losses and the expected “red wave” did not occur. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the real-world outcome occurred under conditions different from the scenario Chamath specified (Democrats had, in fact, passed significant legislation), his conditional prediction was never actually tested. We cannot know from the evidence whether, had Democrats gone in with “nothing done,” there would have been a political “bloodbath.” Therefore, the accuracy of this prediction is ambiguous, not clearly right or wrong.