Based on the official results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump won the general election as the Republican nominee, defeating the Democratic nominee, incumbent President Joe Biden. Multiple reputable sources confirm that Trump secured a majority of Electoral College votes and won the presidency in November 2024, while Biden conceded the race shortly thereafter (e.g., major U.S. news outlets’ 2024 election results pages and post‑election reporting).

Chamath’s prediction was conditional: if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, then whoever the Democratic nominee is will “crush” (decisively defeat) him. The condition was met (Trump was the GOP nominee, Biden was the Democratic nominee), but the predicted outcome was the opposite of what occurred—Trump did not lose decisively; he won the election. Therefore, the prediction is wrong.