Chamath’s claim was that policy rates would stay “higher for longer” than markets expected or wanted, and would not quickly revert toward near‑zero.

1. What markets expected in March 2023
On March 24, 2023, Fed funds futures were pricing in aggressive easing: CME FedWatch–based estimates showed a roughly 74% chance that the Fed would cut rates by at least 1.25 percentage points by the end of 2023, in response to the banking stress that month.(benzinga.com) At that time, the target range had just been raised to 4.75%–5.00% on March 22, 2023.(en.wikipedia.org) So the market baseline was that rates would soon fall meaningfully from those levels.

2. What actually happened to the Fed funds rate
Instead of cutting in 2023, the Fed hiked further to a target range of 5.00%–5.25% in May 2023 and 5.25%–5.50% in July 2023. It then held at 5.25%–5.50% from July 2023 through mid‑September 2024, the highest level since before the 2008 crisis.(en.wikipedia.org) The first cut did not come until September 18, 2024 (to 4.75%–5.00%), followed by further gradual cuts to 4.25%–4.50% by December 18, 2024 and 3.75%–4.00% by October 29, 2025.(en.wikipedia.org) As of late November 2025, the effective rate is still about 3.9%, well above zero.(tradingeconomics.com)

3. Comparison with recent history (“elevated” level)
From December 2008 to December 2015, and again from March 2020 to March 2022, the Fed kept its target range at 0%–0.25% or similarly ultra‑low levels.(en.wikipedia.org) Relative to that recent history, maintaining rates between roughly 3.75% and 5.5% for over two years (2023–2025) clearly qualifies as “elevated.”

4. Comparison with ongoing market hopes for faster cuts
Even after the peak, markets repeatedly priced in faster and deeper easing than the Fed ultimately delivered. For example, by December 2023, futures markets were betting on at least 100 bps of cuts in 2024, while the Fed’s own projections pointed to a much smaller reduction.(spglobal.com) In reality, the first cut came only in September 2024, and by late 2025 the policy rate is still around 3.75%–4.00%, not anywhere near the pre‑COVID zero bound.(en.wikipedia.org)

Taken together:

• Markets in March 2023 were pricing substantial near‑term cuts from ~5% by end‑2023.
• Instead, the Fed raised rates further, held them at 5.25%–5.50% for about a year, and even after a series of cuts in 2024–25, policy remains around 4%, far from the near‑zero regime of the 2010s.

That aligns closely with Chamath’s statement that rates would stay “long higher than we like and longer than we want”, i.e., higher for longer than most market participants anticipated. On the observable data, this prediction has come true.