Several developments since early 2025 indicate that U.S.-dollar stablecoin payment rails have reached meaningful scale and are already both disruptive and economically valuable, in line with Chamath’s prediction.

1. U.S. policy and infrastructure for “U.S. stablecoin rails” now exist.
   In July 2025, the U.S. enacted the GENIUS Act, a federal framework for payment stablecoins that lets banks and other regulated financial institutions issue dollar‑backed stablecoins, defines them as payment instruments (not securities), and mandates 1:1 reserves and monthly audits—essentially formalizing U.S. stablecoin payment rails. (en.wikipedia.org) The Federal Reserve has also proposed giving eligible stablecoin issuers direct access to Fed payment infrastructure via new “payment accounts” / “skinny master accounts,” further integrating stablecoins into core U.S. rails. (finance.yahoo.com)

2. Stablecoins have scaled to volumes comparable to, or larger than, major card networks.
   Dollar stablecoins now make up ~99% of the global stablecoin market with a combined supply above $250–300B. (panewslab.com) On‑chain stablecoin transfers reached about $36.3T annually, surpassing Visa and Mastercard’s combined transaction volume, and recent estimates put average daily stablecoin volume at $3.1T, higher than Visa’s and second only to the U.S. ACH system. (panewslab.com) An a16z industry report finds that by late 2025, adjusted monthly stablecoin volume exceeds five times PayPal’s throughput and is already more than half of Visa’s, with over 1% of global U.S.-dollar circulation now tokenized as stablecoins. (bbx.com) These figures meet any reasonable definition of “implemented at scale.”

3. Concrete disruption of existing payment and financial systems.
   Major payment and fintech players are actively routing payments over stablecoin rails:

   • PayPal’s “Pay with Crypto” allows U.S. merchants to accept stablecoins (e.g., USDC) and other crypto via connected wallets, advertising materially lower fees than many international card payments. (techradar.com)
   • Klarna launched KlarnaUSD, a dollar‑backed stablecoin on a Stripe‑developed blockchain, specifically to cut cross‑border costs by bypassing SWIFT and with plans to extend it to merchant and consumer payments. (ft.com)
     Industry data show that the average stablecoin transaction size has been falling and usage is shifting from large crypto trades to smaller cross‑border and everyday payments, with payment companies’ share of stablecoin volume expected to grow sharply. (coinlive.com)
     Regulators and large asset managers now openly warn that U.S. dollar stablecoins could siphon off bank deposits, dollarize other economies, and destabilize traditional banking and payment systems—evidence that they are already seen as a disruptive alternative infrastructure. (reuters.com)

4. Demonstrable net economic value.
   Academic work estimates that Tether alone held about $98.5B of U.S. Treasury bills by Q1 2025—around 1.6% of the entire T‑bill market—and that this demand has lowered 1‑month T‑bill yields by roughly 24 basis points, implying on the order of $15B per year in U.S. interest savings. (arxiv.org) Broader analyses note that stablecoins collectively hold over $150B in Treasuries, making them a top‑20 holder and a growing, structural source of demand for U.S. debt. (bbx.com) For users and firms, stablecoin rails offer faster settlement and significantly lower cross‑border fees, and are increasingly used for payments, trade, and savings, especially in high‑inflation or under‑banked markets. (panewslab.com)

5. Caveats, but overall alignment with the prediction.
   It’s true that a large share of stablecoin volume still comes from trading and automated activity, and long‑term net effects (including financial‑stability risks) remain uncertain. (panewslab.com) However, by late 2025 the combination of (a) national‑level U.S. regulation and integration into Fed‑adjacent rails, (b) multi‑trillion‑dollar, payment‑like transaction volumes, (c) real shifts in cross‑border payment flows and merchant acceptance, and (d) measurable macro‑level benefits such as reduced U.S. borrowing costs strongly supports Chamath’s claim that U.S. stablecoin rails, once scaled, would be “hugely disruptive and value added.”

Given the evidence available as of November 30, 2025, this prediction is best classified as right, with the understanding that the full long‑term balance of benefits and risks is still evolving.