Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
Chamath is implicitly asserting that there is a substantial probability (later quantified by Jason as 60%) that Kyrie Irving will choose to retire from the NBA rather than get vaccinated under the then-current COVID-19 vaccine mandates.
What do you think the odds are? Kyrie retires?View on YouTube
Explanation

Kyrie Irving did not retire from the NBA over COVID-19 vaccine mandates. In an October 2021 Instagram Live, he explicitly told fans, “Don’t believe that I’m retiring. Don’t believe that I’mma give up this game for a vaccine mandate or staying unvaccinated” and instead chose to sit out rather than retire while the mandates were in force. (cbsnews.com)

New York City later modified its private-sector and venue mandates in March 2022, allowing unvaccinated athletes like Irving to resume playing home games, after which he returned to full participation with the Brooklyn Nets instead of retiring. (netsdaily.com) He subsequently continued his NBA career, was traded to the Dallas Mavericks in 2023, and as of 2025 has signed a new three-year contract extension with Dallas, confirming his ongoing active status in the league. (nba.com)

Since the event in question (“Kyrie retires rather than get vaccinated under the mandates”) never occurred, the implied prediction that there was a substantial chance he would choose retirement over continuing his NBA career is wrong.