Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
Play‑to‑earn games in DeFi/metaverse environments will evolve into full-time jobs for some people, leading them to spend 8–10 hours per day in some form of metaverse environment.
there are play to earn movements that are happening in, in sort of this, you know, layer three kind of DeFi world where you're getting paid to basically play games that could be a job, and then you will spend 8 to 10 hours in a metaverse of some sort.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence after the October 2021 episode shows that play‑to‑earn (P2E) and metaverse‑style crypto games did become full‑time jobs for at least some people, who spent workday‑length hours in those virtual environments.

  • Reporting on Axie Infinity in 2021–22 describes it explicitly turning into a full‑time job for many players in the Philippines and other developing countries, with earnings meeting or exceeding local wages and helping keep parts of local economies afloat.(english.elpais.com) One Fortune/Decrypt summary notes Axie’s play‑to‑earn model "helped transform Axie Infinity into a full‑time job for hundreds of thousands of people in the Philippines and elsewhere."(fortune.com)
  • A Coindesk piece on Axie Infinity documents the emergence of the “Metaverse Filipino Worker” concept and profiles a worker who quits an overseas meat‑packing job in Japan after realizing he can earn more in three months by playing Axie, renting out NFTs, and trading crypto from home—treating this metaverse activity as his primary occupation.(coindesk.com) A derivative write‑up highlights another Filipino player earning about 10,000 PHP per week from playing Axie "around the clock," describing this as his full‑time job, and explicitly framing the metaverse as a new workplace reachable with only a smartphone and internet connection.(creationsforu.com) Playing “around the clock” for a living is consistent with the 8–10‑hours‑per‑day work pattern Chamath described.
  • Reuters coverage of the broader P2E boom shows people not only playing but also running guilds and other metaverse‑native businesses full time. In Thailand, Thitadilaka builds GuildFi—a network of 3,000 Axie players—and ends up running the guild as his full‑time job after it raises substantial venture funding. In the Philippines, ex‑teacher Teriz Pia quits her preschool job to manage a play‑to‑earn gaming guild with hundreds of players, earning as much as $20,000 per month from P2E and related crypto activities.(investing.com)

Although many of these P2E economies later proved volatile and unsustainable at scale, the prediction only claimed that play‑to‑earn DeFi/metaverse games would evolve into full‑time jobs for some people who then spend a typical workday inside a metaverse environment—not that this would be universal or permanent. By 2021–2022 there is clear, documented evidence of exactly that phenomenon in multiple countries. Therefore, the prediction is best classified as right.