The prediction explicitly covers a 10–15 year horizon starting in 2021, i.e., roughly 2021–2031/2036. As of today (2025-11-30), only about four years have passed, so we cannot yet determine whether over that entire period all four firms will “continue to win” without any of them being displaced or substantially diminished. That makes the forecast too early to score definitively.

Partial check so far (as of late 2025):

• Amazon remains the world’s largest retailer by market cap and one of the top five public companies globally, with a market cap around $2.4–2.5T. (companiesmarketcap.com)
• Apple is one of the two most valuable public companies, with a market cap around $4.1T, and is projected to overtake or has just overtaken Samsung as the top global smartphone seller. (companiesmarketcap.com)
• Shopify is still a major e‑commerce platform provider, with a market cap around $200B, ranking in the top ~100 public companies worldwide. (companiesmarketcap.com)
• Stripe remains one of the most valuable private fintechs, with a 2025 secondary sale valuing it at about $91.5B, close to its 2021 peak of $95B. (cnbc.com)

So far, reality is consistent with Chamath’s view that all four are still major winners and none has been clearly displaced by the others. However, because the forecast is about their status over the full 10–15 year span, and we are not yet close to the end of that window, the appropriate score at this time is **“inconclusive (too early)” rather than definitively right or wrong.