The prediction is framed as a conditional: if Microsoft were to take roughly 5–6 percentage points of search share from Google via AI, then major U.S. antitrust efforts against Google and other tech giants would effectively lose credibility and no major adverse antitrust remedies would be imposed.

On the antecedent (market-share shift):

• In the U.S., Bing’s total search share was about 6.4% in Q2 2023 with Google around 89%.
• By early 2025, estimates put Google at roughly 88% and Bing at 7–8.5% of U.S. search, i.e., a gain of only about 1–2 percentage points, not the 5–6 points Chamath specified. (wpshout.com)
• Globally, Bing’s share rose from about 3.0% in 2023 to ~3.9–4.1% in 2025, again roughly a 1 point gain, not 5–6. (backlinko.com)
  So the key condition — Microsoft taking 500–600 basis points of search share from Google — did not occur.

On the consequent (antitrust becoming DOA):

• The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), not the FTC, won landmark cases finding Google to have illegal monopolies in both general search and in key digital ad-tech markets, with courts ordering behavioral remedies (data-sharing with rivals, limits on exclusivity) and opening the door to potential structural remedies in ad tech. (theguardian.com)
• The FTC has remained active against Big Tech: it brought a major antitrust suit alleging Amazon illegally maintains an online retail monopoly (trial set for 2027) and secured a record $2.5 billion settlement over deceptive Prime sign‑up and cancellation practices. (en.wikipedia.org) It also pursued a breakup case against Meta over Instagram/WhatsApp, which it ultimately lost in November 2025, but the case went all the way through trial and a merits ruling. (businessinsider.com)

These outcomes show that antitrust enforcement against Big Tech has by no means disappeared, though the FTC’s litigation record is mixed. However, because the specific trigger condition (a 5–6 point Bing share gain) never materialized, we cannot directly test Chamath’s asserted causal relationship between such a shift and the demise of credible antitrust action.

Therefore, strictly on the normalized conditional prediction — if Microsoft gains ~5–6 points of search share, then major antitrust remedies become DOA — the real world has not satisfied the "if" clause, so whether the "then" clause would have followed is inherently unknowable from observed data. That makes the prediction ambiguous, not cleanly right or wrong.