Chamath @ 01:28:18Right
politicsgovernment
There is a 30–50% probability that, following the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, a durable third political party will be formally created in the U.S., built on the ballot‑access and campaign infrastructure established by RFK Jr.’s 2024 independent run (and/or No Labels).
Yes. And I and I think that there is a very reasonable chance and I would put reasonable somewhere between 30 and 50% that this third party gets created after the presidential election. And that is the one of the very likely outcomes of Rfk's candidacy, because it is an infrastructure that will have gotten on presidential ballots in 50 states, and it's an infrastructure that if people are willing to fund specifically No Labels and other people, I think the artifact could be a third party.View on YouTube
Explanation
Evidence indicates that a new, explicitly RFK‑linked third party has in fact been formally (re)created after the November 2024 election, using the ballot‑access infrastructure built for his independent run.
- During the 2024 cycle, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. created We The People Party (plus the Texas Independent Party) in multiple states specifically as a ballot‑access vehicle for his independent presidential campaign, not as a long‑term programmatic party.(en.wikipedia.org) This is the campaign infrastructure Chamath was referring to.
- In 2025, Kennedy supporters formally relaunched We The People Party as a standalone national third party, with a national chair (Levi Leatherberry), explicit plans to expand ballot access over the next three years, target races like the New York governorship, endorse candidates (e.g., Larry Sharpe for NY governor), and position the party as an “anti‑establishment” alternative for disaffected voters.(yahoo.com) This relaunch happened after the 2024 presidential election and is explicitly described as a way to reuse the party infrastructure built for Kennedy’s 2024 ballot‑access efforts.
- While the party is still small and its long‑term success is uncertain, it meets the core criteria of Chamath’s prediction: a formally organized, continuing third party, built out of RFK Jr.’s 2024 ballot‑access machinery, created after the presidential election with the stated intent to contest future midterms and the 2028 presidential race.(yahoo.com)
- By contrast, No Labels ended its 2024 presidential effort before the election and has not itself become a new, durable national party (its main structure remains a 501(c)(4) advocacy group, with only scattered state‑level party lines and even some loss of party recognition in places like North Carolina).(en.wikipedia.org)
Given that the central event Chamath described—post‑election creation of a continuing third party leveraging RFK’s 2024 ballot‑access infrastructure—has occurred, the prediction is best classified as right, even though the eventual durability and scale of We The People Party remain to be seen.