Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
Chamath @ 01:24:39Inconclusive
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Isomorphic Labs, Google’s drug-discovery/biotech AI unit, will ultimately be worth on the order of multiple hundreds of billions of dollars in enterprise value (i.e., comparable to a standalone multi-hundred-billion-dollar company) once its business is mature.
Between last week’s announcement of Isomorphic Labs, which let’s be honest, that’s a that’s just a multi hundred billion dollar company.View on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, Isomorphic Labs is still an Alphabet-controlled AI drug‑discovery subsidiary, not an independently listed or otherwise separately valued company, so there is no observable enterprise value on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars to confirm or falsify Chamath’s long‑run claim. The company remains in the R&D and early‑commercialization phase: it has struck multibillion‑dollar potential collaboration deals with Eli Lilly and Novartis, together worth up to about $3 billion in milestones and royalties, but these are contingent and long‑dated rather than mature cash flows. (prnewswire.com) In March 2025, Isomorphic raised $600 million in its first external funding round (one of the largest UK AI‑biotech raises), yet the round did not disclose a valuation, and industry reporting only notes that Alphabet remains the majority owner. (prnewswire.com) The company expects its first AI‑designed drugs to enter human trials around the end of 2025, underscoring that the business is still far from a “mature” steady‑state where ultimate enterprise value could be credibly assessed; drug development timelines are typically 10–15 years. (cnbc.com) Because the prediction concerns Isomorphic’s eventual value once its business is fully mature, and the company has not yet reached anything close to that stage, there is currently insufficient evidence to judge the forecast as either correct or incorrect.