Evidence since the March 23, 2023 hearing shows that the U.S. government ultimately chose a ban/sale path rather than letting TikTok continue under ByteDance ownership with conditions like “Project Texas.” At the hearing itself, lawmakers in both parties signaled they did not trust TikTok’s mitigation plan and were openly discussing a full ban or forced divestiture, rejecting Chew’s proposal to keep TikTok under ByteDance with data-firewall conditions. (cnbc.com)

In April 2024, Congress passed and President Biden signed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations by January 19, 2025 or face a nationwide ban. ByteDance and TikTok sued to block the law, explicitly warning that if they lost, the act would “force a shutdown of TikTok by January 19, 2025.” (macrumors.com)

Courts ultimately upheld the law, and on January 18–19, 2025, the ban did go into effect: TikTok sent in‑app notices to U.S. users that a U.S. law banning TikTok was taking effect and that services would be “temporarily unavailable,” and the app was removed from the Apple App Store and Google Play in the U.S. Multiple outlets reported TikTok had “officially shut down” or “shut down in the United States” as the law’s ban provisions kicked in, with hosting providers required to stop supporting the app. (9to5mac.com)

Within days, President‑elect (then President) Trump pledged to delay enforcement and extend the divestiture deadline, allowing TikTok to restore service via its infrastructure partners, though it remained in legal limbo and off major app stores for some time. The Supreme Court’s and administration’s actions still left TikTok subject to the sell‑or‑ban framework rather than any long‑term regime where ByteDance could simply keep operating it with conditions. (theverge.com)

By late 2025, TikTok is operating again in the U.S. but only in the context of a forced divestiture: Reuters reports that under a 2024 national‑security law, ByteDance is in the process of divesting roughly 80% of TikTok’s U.S. assets to a consortium led by Oracle and Silver Lake, with ByteDance retaining less than a 20% stake and the algorithm being retrained under U.S. supervision. Another Reuters piece notes Trump approved a divestiture plan and extended the enforcement deadline to January 20, 2026, but still under the requirement that TikTok’s U.S. operations come under majority American control. (reuters.com)

Putting this together:

• The U.S. did not settle on the scenario Chamath was implicitly rejecting (TikTok remaining under ByteDance ownership with a "Project Texas"‑style fix). Instead, Congress and the courts backed a law that either forces sale or shuts TikTok down.
• That law actually produced a real nationwide shutdown of TikTok in January 2025 before political intervention temporarily relaxed enforcement.
• The medium‑term end state, as of November 2025, is a forced divestiture away from ByteDance, not continued ByteDance ownership with conditions.

Because TikTok was forced to shut down in the U.S. under federal law, and the U.S. ultimately rejected the “ByteDance keeps it with conditions” path in favor of ban/sale pressure culminating in divestiture, Chamath’s core prediction—that the post‑hearing political trajectory would lead to TikTok getting shut down rather than being allowed to keep operating under ByteDance with some compliance wrapper—is best assessed as right, albeit with the nuance that the shutdown, while real and nationwide, was later partially reversed and followed by a sale process rather than a permanent ban.