Summary: Chamath’s claim was a conditional forecast — if Alphabet made very large cost cuts in headcount/compensation along the lines of a major shareholder proposal, its stock would rise ~35% (for a partial cut) or ~65% (for the full cut) in one trading day. Those specific cost cuts have not actually occurred, so the prediction can’t be directly tested.

Evidence:

1. A November 15, 2022 letter from major shareholder TCI urged Alphabet to become about 20% more efficient by substantially cutting headcount growth and very high employee compensation; this is the “full” cost‑cut target referenced in the episode.(tcifund.com)
2. After the podcast, Alphabet’s largest announced broad reduction was a layoff of about 12,000 employees (roughly 6% of its global workforce) in January 2023, followed by smaller targeted cuts later on—well short of a 10–20% overall reduction in staff/compensation that would clearly satisfy the podcast’s “half” or “full” scenario.(investopedia.com)
3. The January 2023 layoff announcement led to a same‑day gain of only around 4% in Alphabet’s share price, and historical trading data show that the company’s largest one‑day positive move in the last three years was about 9.7% on April 9, 2025—far below the 35–65% one‑day jump Chamath described.(investopedia.com)
4. Because Alphabet has not implemented cost cuts on anything like the full 20% efficiency target (or even a clearly delineated “half” version in the 10%+ range), we have no real‑world instance where the condition of his prediction was satisfied.

Conclusion: Since the hypothesized level of cost cutting never actually occurred, and the smaller real‑world cuts produced much smaller stock reactions than predicted, the claim is neither confirmed nor cleanly falsified. The fairest verdict is that the prediction’s accuracy is ambiguous given the data to date.