Since the March 29, 2024 episode, the broad fiscal and political status quo has indeed persisted: the U.S. has continued to run large deficits and add to the national debt, which reached about $38 trillion by October 23, 2025, with Congress subsequently raising the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion rather than forcing sharp, immediate austerity or a restructuring of obligations. (en.wikipedia.org) Despite growing alarm from economists and officials about an emerging “debt crisis,” policy responses have largely taken the form of more borrowing authority and ongoing high spending, not a sudden systemic reset.

There have been episodes of acute stress—most notably the 43‑day federal government shutdown in 2025 and large Trump‑era federal workforce cuts—but these amounted to partisan brinkmanship and administrative downsizing, not a sovereign default, radical debt restructuring, or a forced end to the high‑spending model Chamath was describing. (en.wikipedia.org) However, his prediction explicitly framed this pattern as continuing “for a very long time,” which implies a multi‑year or even multi‑decade horizon. With only roughly a year and a half elapsed since the prediction, there has not been enough time to determine whether the status quo will indeed persist for “a very long time,” even though events so far are consistent with his view. Therefore, the correct assessment today is inconclusive (too early to tell) rather than definitively right or wrong.