Chamath framed the “middle path” as one where nothing happens legally to Trump from the Mar‑a‑Lago raid, but public trust in DOJ continues to erode.

On the legal outcome, that forecast did not hold:

• The August 8, 2022 FBI search of Mar‑a‑Lago recovered over 13,000 government documents, including 337 marked classified. (en.wikipedia.org)
• On June 8, 2023, Trump was federally indicted in United States v. Trump on 37, later 40, felony counts (willful retention of national defense information, obstruction‑related offenses, false statements, etc.), a case explicitly arising from his retention of classified documents at Mar‑a‑Lago and evidence gathered through that investigation and search. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Trump surrendered, was arrested, booked, and arraigned in June 2023, with charges carrying potential multi‑year prison sentences—an unprecedented federal criminal case against a former president. (en.wikipedia.org)
• The case was later dismissed in July 2024 on the ground that Special Counsel Jack Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional; DOJ dropped its appeal after Trump’s 2024 re‑election, and in February 2025 the FBI returned boxes seized in the 2022 search. (en.wikipedia.org)

Even though the charges were ultimately dismissed and no conviction or sentence resulted, being indicted on dozens of federal felonies, arrested, arraigned, and subjected to a multi‑year prosecution is a major legal consequence flowing directly from the Mar‑a‑Lago documents investigation and raid. That is materially different from “nothing happens” or “no significant legal consequences.”

On the trust in DOJ piece, the direction of his call is broadly consistent with the data:

• Surveys since 2022 show low and worsening confidence in the justice system generally; Gallup found overall confidence in the U.S. judicial system at a record‑low 35% in 2024, with Trump‑related legal battles cited among the contributing factors. (apnews.com)
• Evaluations of DOJ’s performance have been largely negative: a 2024 summary of Gallup and Pew data reports roughly seven in ten Americans rating DOJ’s performance as only fair or poor, and Pew finds the public split roughly evenly between favorable and unfavorable views of DOJ. (forbes.com)
• By 2025, only about 20% of Americans express strong confidence that DOJ and the FBI will act fairly and nonpartisan under Trump, and a Marquette national poll finds 55% saying DOJ has filed unjustified cases against Trump’s political opponents—clear evidence of widespread skepticism about DOJ’s fairness. (apnews.com)

So, while Chamath was directionally right that trust in DOJ would be further eroded, the central, falsifiable part of his prediction—that the Mar‑a‑Lago investigation would lead to effectively no significant legal consequences for Trump—has been contradicted by the subsequent indictment and prosecution. Overall, this makes the prediction wrong.