Portion about 10–15% believing evidence was planted
Multiple polls after the Mar-a-Lago search show that at least this share of Americans believed or leaned toward believing the “planted evidence” claim:

• A YouGov poll summarized by The Washington Post found that shortly after the search, 38% of Republicans said the FBI planted evidence at Mar‑a‑Lago, 23% disagreed, and 39% were unsure. With Republicans making up roughly a third of adults, that alone implies ≈11–13% of all U.S. adults affirmatively believed evidence was planted. A subsequent YouGov poll the next month found a majority of Republicans said it was at least “probably true” the FBI planted classified documents, which would put the national share at or above 15%. (washingtonpost.com)
• A national survey summarized by Statista (Sept 3–6, 2022) reported 9% of all Americans saying it was definitely true the FBI planted sensitive documents at Mar‑a‑Lago. That figure excludes additional respondents who said it was “probably true,” so the total share who believed the claim is necessarily higher than 9%, plausibly in the low‑ to mid‑teens. (statista.com)

Taken together, these data support Chamath’s prediction that at least 10–15% of the U.S. population would believe the documents were planted.

Portion about an outcome that leaves people unsatisfied
The legal and political trajectory of the case fits his contention that whatever the outcome, it would not be broadly seen as satisfactory:

• Early on, public opinion was sharply split: a Northeastern University survey conducted days after the search found 51% of Americans approved of the raid and 27% disapproved, but 84% of Democrats approved while 64% of Republicans opposed it—showing immediate, intense partisan division. (news.northeastern.edu)
• A Quinnipiac poll in late August 2022 found about half of Americans thought Trump’s conduct was criminal and that he should be prosecuted, with 85% of Democrats and 52% of independents saying he should be charged—versus strong opposition among Republicans. (thepeninsulaqatar.com)
• By June 2023, an AP–NORC poll found 53% of adults believed Trump had done something illegal in his handling of the documents, but only 23% of Republicans agreed; views on his guilt and the propriety of prosecution remained deeply polarized. (apnorc.org)
• Legally, the case ended inconclusively for accountability advocates: Trump was federally indicted over the documents in 2023, but Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the case on Appointments Clause grounds in July 2024. (en.wikipedia.org) Democrats and many legal experts condemned the ruling as “breathtakingly misguided” and “stunning and wrong,” while Republicans celebrated it as vindication and a major legal victory. (missouriindependent.com)

So although some Republicans were clearly pleased by the dismissal, the broader pattern matches Chamath’s point: no resolution commanded widespread, cross‑partisan satisfaction. One side’s “win” was treated by the other as proof of system failure.

Portion about both extremes getting angrier and more polarized
Evidence also supports his forecast of intensified anger and polarization on both ends of the spectrum:

• Surveys show a widening partisan gulf in trust toward the FBI and DOJ. A Marquette Law School national poll found Republicans far less confident in the FBI than Democrats; large shares of Republicans report “very little” or “no” confidence in the bureau, while Democrats mostly express high confidence. (law.marquette.edu)
• After Trump’s subsequent indictment on the classified-documents charges, an ABC News/Ipsos and CBS/YouGov polling summary found around two‑thirds to three‑quarters of Republicans believed the charges were politically motivated and said they must support Trump to oppose his enemies—while majorities of Americans overall (and overwhelming majorities of Democrats) thought his retention of the documents was a serious national‑security problem and that he should be charged. (axios.com)
• Broader opinion data around this period show majorities saying the country is on the “wrong track,” ranking “threats to democracy” as a top national problem and expressing high willingness to protest—indicators of elevated, cross‑ideological anger. (statista.com)

Assessment

• The quantitative threshold in the prediction—at least 10–15% believing the evidence was planted—is met by multiple independent polls. (washingtonpost.com)
• The qualitative claims that the investigation’s outcomes would not bring a broadly legitimizing resolution, and that both political extremes would grow angrier and more polarized, are borne out by the sequence of a polarizing raid, a controversial indictment, and a highly disputed dismissal that each side alternately denounced or celebrated.

While some wording (e.g., “nobody will be satisfied”) is somewhat hyperbolic, the core substance of Chamath’s forecast—significant belief in planted evidence, no outcome widely accepted as fair, and heightened polarization on both ends—matches what happened closely enough to count as essentially correct.