Chamath’s prediction was that before the 2024 U.S. presidential election there would be a “Deep Throat / Watergate‑style” investigative leak by a well‑placed insider working with major journalists, exposing a deliberate cover‑up of President Biden’s cognitive condition.

What actually happened:

1. Prior to and during the 2024 campaign, there was no singular, Woodward‑and‑Bernstein‑style exposé that definitively “got to the bottom” of an organized cover‑up of Biden’s cognition. The most detailed accounts of an alleged systematic cover‑up came later, in 2025 books such as Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again by Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson, and Chris Whipple’s Uncharted, which rely on extensive retrospective sourcing and describe efforts inside Biden’s circle to conceal or minimize his decline. These were published months after the November 5, 2024 election. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. The closest analogue—Carl Bernstein’s July 1–2, 2024 reporting—predated the podcast and fell short of the predicted “Watergate moment.” In early July 2024, Bernstein reported on CNN (and was widely summarized in outlets like the New York Post and others) that multiple sources close to Biden said there had been 15–20 episodes over the prior 18 months where Biden appeared as impaired as he did in the June 27 debate, and that concerns had been raised with former chief of staff Ron Klain and “pushed back.” (nypost.com) While significant, this was:

   • based on anonymous, second‑hand sources, not a named Deep‑Throat‑style whistleblower; and
   • a single TV segment and follow‑up write‑ups, not a sustained investigative series uncovering the full machinery of an official cover‑up. Importantly, this reporting aired before the July 12, 2024 podcast episode, so it cannot be the future event Chamath was forecasting.

3. The Robert Hur special‑counsel report (February 2024) raised cognitive concerns but was an official DOJ product, not a journalistic leak. Hur described Biden as a “well‑meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” and recounted notable memory lapses, prompting intense political debate about Biden’s mental fitness. (theguardian.com) However, this was a formal prosecutorial report, not a clandestine leak from an insider to investigative reporters exposing a hidden cover‑up campaign.

4. Post‑election retrospectives explicitly frame the big revelations as coming too late, not as something voters fully learned before November 2024. In promoting Original Sin in 2025, Jake Tapper has repeatedly said that legacy media—including himself—under‑covered Biden’s decline in real time and is now trying to reckon with that failure. (realclearpolitics.com) That admission is difficult to square with the idea that there had already been a decisive Watergate‑like media exposé before the 2024 vote.

Given these facts, there was no single, decisive “Deep Throat / Watergate‑style” investigative leak before the 2024 election that clearly exposed a coordinated cover‑up of Biden’s cognitive condition in the way Chamath described. Instead, the more thorough accounts of any alleged cover‑up emerged in 2025 books and subsequent congressional probes, well after the election had been decided.

Therefore, the prediction is wrong.