Claudine Gay resigned as president of Harvard University on January 2, 2024, less than seven months into her tenure and well within one year of the December 16, 2023 podcast episode.

Multiple outlets report that Gay stepped down on January 2, 2024, amid controversy over her congressional testimony on antisemitism and allegations of plagiarism, with Harvard’s provost Alan Garber becoming interim president.(cnbc.com) Her resignation letter confirms that she was “stepping down as president” and returning to the faculty.(theguardian.com)

Chamath’s prediction had two branches:

1. Short-term: She “probably won’t be in that job in a year from now.”
2. Medium-term: Alternatively, she would “muddle along” and in 2–3 years retire under a face‑saving narrative (e.g., to spend more time with family).

Reality matched the first branch: she did not remain in the job for even one year after the episode; instead she resigned within a few weeks. The exact framing of the resignation (institutional controversy rather than a bland “more time with family” narrative) corresponds to the second, alternative branch that did not occur, but that does not affect the correctness of the primary, time-bounded prediction.

Because Gay indeed left the presidency well before one year had elapsed, the prediction that she would not be in the job a year later was right.