Chamath’s statement is both conditional and open‑ended in time: he says that if Google positions itself as the trusted, non‑hallucinating “truth‑teller” in AI and pays on the order of tens of billions of dollars per year to license high‑quality training data, then that would support Google being a ~$10T company.

As of November 30, 2025:

1. Alphabet’s market value is far below $10T but rising. Alphabet/Google’s market cap is around $3.8–3.9T and approaching $4T, not $10T. (companiesmarketcap.com)
2. The specific precondition (massive data‑licensing spend) hasn’t happened. Public reporting does not show Google spending “tens of billions per year” specifically on training data licensing. Instead, the largest "tens of billions" deals around Google are others (e.g., Anthropic) committing tens of billions to buy Google’s TPU compute capacity, not Google paying for data. (techradar.com)
3. Google’s AI branding is about ‘responsible’ and ‘for everyone,’ not uniquely a ‘truth‑teller’ moat. Google heavily markets “responsible AI” and AI “built for everyone,” but there is no clear, widely recognized shift where Google is uniquely perceived as the truth‑focused, non‑hallucinating AI provider in the sense Chamath described. (toolify.ai)
4. No time horizon was specified. Chamath did not say Google would reach $10T by 2025 or any concrete date—only that such a strategy could support a $10T valuation at some point in the future.

Because (a) the strategy he described has not actually been implemented as stated, and (b) there is no explicit deadline by which the $10T outcome must occur, we cannot evaluate whether his conditional claim about that strategy’s ultimate valuation impact is correct or incorrect. We can only say Alphabet is currently far short of $10T while following a somewhat different AI strategy.

Therefore, the prediction is inconclusive at this time.