The prediction explicitly concerns a 20–30 year period starting around 2025, claiming India will have a prolonged high‑growth phase comparable in impact to China’s 2003–2012 boom and become a major global manufacturing engine. As of November 2025, less than one year of that window has elapsed, so the long‑run claim cannot yet be verified or falsified.

Available data show that India is currently the fastest‑growing major economy, with recent and projected real GDP growth around 6.5–8% per year, according to the IMF’s Article IV reports and World Economic Outlook updates.(imf.org) India has also been expanding manufacturing and exports, supported by government schemes like production‑linked incentives and rising FDI, and is now roughly the fifth‑largest manufacturer globally.(ibef.org) However, its share of global manufacturing is still only about 2.8–3.2%, versus roughly 29% for China, far from the dominance China achieved.(ndtvprofit.com)

India does enjoy a substantial labor‑cost advantage over China—manufacturing labor is on the order of $1.4/hour versus about $7/hour in China, and roughly a small fraction of U.S. manufacturing wages—supporting one premise of Chamath’s argument about cost competitiveness.(refteck.com) But whether this advantage will translate into a China‑style, multi‑decade manufacturing‑led boom comparable in impact to China’s 2003–2012 surge can only be assessed many years from now. Given the very early stage relative to the stated 20–30 year horizon, the prediction is too early to call.