Chamath’s claim was that Nvidia’s revenue scale would continue for “the next 2 or 3 years” from February 2024, i.e., roughly through February 2026–February 2027, meaning no material contraction from its then-current (very elevated) run‑rate.

As of late 2025, all available data show Nvidia’s revenue has grown dramatically rather than contracted:

• In Q4 FY2024 (quarter ended January 28, 2024, just before the prediction), Nvidia reported revenue of $22.1B.
• In Q1 FY2025, revenue rose to $26.0B, up 18% sequentially and 262% year‑over‑year.
• By Q2 FY2025, revenue hit $30.0B.
• By Q4 FY2025 (quarter ended January 26, 2025), quarterly revenue climbed further to $39.3B, with full‑year FY2025 revenue of $130.5B, up 114% year‑over‑year. (nvidianews.nvidia.com)
• In Q1 FY2026, revenue reached $44.06B, another record, despite export‑control headwinds to China. (investopedia.com)
• In Q3 FY2026, revenue surged again to about $57.0B for the quarter, up 62% year‑over‑year and 22% sequentially, driven mainly by data center/AI sales. (tomshardware.com)

So far, Nvidia’s revenue has not only maintained but far exceeded its early‑2024 run‑rate, validating the direction of Chamath’s thesis up to now.

However, the full 2–3 year horizon has not yet elapsed as of November 30, 2025. To conclusively judge the prediction, we’d need to see whether this high revenue scale persists at least through roughly February 2026 (the 2‑year mark) and ideally toward 2027. Since that period isn’t over, the prediction cannot yet be definitively scored as right or wrong, only as on track so far.

Therefore, the correct classification is “inconclusive (too early)”, even though current data are strongly supportive so far.