ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Chamath
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Chamath @ 00:13:50Wrong
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Before the Delaware Chancery Court fully adjudicates the case, the Elon Musk–Twitter dispute will most likely be resolved via a settlement in which (a) Musk pays roughly the economic difference between Twitter’s then‑trading price and $54.20 per share (on the order of $7–10 billion), or (b) the deal closes at a renegotiated price around $51 per share, rather than at $54.20.
this kind of, again, builds more and more momentum in my mind that the most likely outcome here is a settlement where you have to pay the economic difference between where the stock is now and 54, 20, which is more than $1 billion, or you close at some number below $54.20 a share. And I think that that is like, you know, if you had to be a betting person, that's probably. And if you look at the the way the stock is traded, and if you also look at the way the options market trades, that's what people are assuming that there's a 7 to $10 billion swing. And if you impute that into the stock price. You kind of get into the $51 a share, kind of an acquisition price.View on YouTube
Explanation

Public filings and contemporaneous reporting show that Elon Musk ultimately closed the Twitter acquisition at the original price of $54.20 per share, not at a reduced price or via a cash settlement of the price gap.

  • Twitter’s Form 8‑K filed with the SEC states that on October 27, 2022, pursuant to the April 25, 2022 merger agreement, each outstanding share of Twitter common stock was converted into the right to receive $54.20 in cash per share. (sec.gov)
  • In early October 2022, Musk informed the court and Twitter that he intended to proceed with the deal on the original terms of $54.20 per share, and Twitter confirmed its intention to close at that price. (cnbc.com)
  • Delaware Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick then stayed the trial, giving Musk until October 28, 2022 to close the transaction to avoid the scheduled October 17 trial; after the deal closed, the litigation was effectively resolved without a full trial or merits opinion, i.e., without “full adjudication” in Chancery. (cnbc.com)
  • Reporting at the time even noted that Twitter had at some point offered Musk “billions off the transaction price,” which his side claimed he refused—underscoring that the final outcome was no discount from $54.20. (foxbusiness.com)

Chamath’s prediction specified that, before the Delaware Chancery Court fully adjudicated the case, the most likely outcome would be a settlement where Musk either (a) pays roughly the economic difference between the then‑trading price and $54.20 per share (on the order of $7–10 billion), or (b) closes at a renegotiated price around $51 per share, below $54.20. The timing aspect (resolution before full adjudication) turned out to be accurate, but the core economic claim did not: the dispute was resolved by closing at $54.20, with no $7–10 billion settlement payment and no lower per‑share price. Thus, taken as a whole, the prediction is wrong.