Chamath’s claim was that once the large‑cap U.S. “big tech generals” traded down another ~10–15% from their January 2022 levels, that move would mark or closely coincide with the bottom of the broader equity selloff and “most of the pain” would be over.

In reality, both the indices and the big tech names fell far more than that after January 2022, and the bear market bottom came many months later:

• Broader market: The S&P 500 peaked on January 3, 2022 and didn’t bottom until October 12–13, 2022, with a peak‑to‑trough decline of about 25%, a classic bear market.(campaignforamillion.com) The tech‑heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered an even worse bear market from its November 2021 high through December 2022, with a drop of roughly 33% and a 2022 total return of ‑33.5%.(nasdaq.com) That means a large share of the eventual damage occurred well after an extra 10–15% pullback from January levels.

• Big tech “generals” from Jan 21, 2022 closes to their 2022 lows:

  • Apple (AAPL): $159.07 → $124.17 low (Dec 28, 2022), about ‑22%.(statmuse.com)
  • Microsoft (MSFT): $287.44 → ~$209 low (Nov 3, 2022), about ‑27%.(statmuse.com)
  • Amazon (AMZN): $142.64 → $81.82 low (Dec 28, 2022), about ‑43%.(statmuse.com)
  • Alphabet (GOOGL): $129.46 → $83.34 low in 2022, about ‑36%.(statmuse.com)
  • Meta (META): $301.31 → $88.37 low (Nov 3, 2022), about ‑71%.(statmuse.com)

In other words, after these stocks had fallen the extra 10–15% from their January 2022 levels, they continued to drop dramatically further, and the broader market did not bottom until October 2022, after much deeper losses. Since we now know that the October 2022 lows marked the end of that bear market cycle and the start of the current bull run, Chamath’s threshold for when “most of the pain” would be over was substantially too shallow and too early.(blog.commonwealth.com)